A leading Israeli analyst has issued a stark warning about what he describes as a dangerous new wave of “illusions” gripping Israel, particularly regarding the pursuit of sovereignty over the occupied West Bank. Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center and a former intelligence officer, argues that these delusions are even more perilous than those that preceded the October 7th, 2023 attacks, as they are driven by an ideological fervor that disregards both practical realities and international consequences.
In an op-ed published in *Yediot Ahronot*, Milstein contends that the same figures who championed the flawed security and political vision that led to the October 7th debacle are now spearheading a renewed push for annexation. While acknowledging the damage this policy inflicts on Israel’s relationship with the United States and the international community, these individuals dismiss the consequences as “minor bumps on the road to salvation.”
Milstein points to the proposed “sovereignty law” and the inflammatory rhetoric of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich as prime examples of this dangerous trend. Smotrich’s dismissive comments directed towards Saudi Arabia, telling them to “ride camels in the desert instead of talking about normalization,” exemplify a condescending attitude towards the region that mirrors the pre-October 7th intelligence failures, where Hamas’s capabilities were significantly underestimated.
According to Milstein, this new vision rests on a series of fundamentally flawed assumptions. These include the belief that the United States, regardless of its administration, will unconditionally support Israel; that a “partial annexation” of the Jordan Valley or other limited areas can be achieved in a way acceptable to Washington and some Arab states; and that the Arab world has grown weary of the Palestinian issue and no longer cares about it.
These assumptions, Milstein argues, have already begun to crumble. He highlights instances where prominent American figures, including former President Donald Trump and his potential running mate J.D. Vance, have expressed reservations about Israeli annexation plans. Furthermore, Trump’s suggestion of potentially releasing Marwan Barghouti, a prominent Palestinian leader serving multiple life sentences in Israeli prison, to potentially lead Gaza, represents a significant blow to the Israeli right wing’s agenda.
Milstein reminds readers that this is not the first time the religious right’s ambitions have collided with reality. In 2020, Israel shelved annexation plans in favor of the Abraham Accords. However, the proponents of annexation have not abandoned their convictions, continuing to view it as a divine mandate that cannot be compromised.
He further criticizes the same individuals for overseeing a series of failed projects in the Gaza Strip over the past two years. These include the “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation project,” which squandered billions of shekels, attempts to encourage “voluntary migration” of Palestinians through a special administration within the Ministry of Defense, and the ill-fated “militias and clans” scheme, which aimed to replace Hamas’s rule but ultimately resulted in the elimination or arrest of its members by Hamas.
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Despite these failures, no official investigation has been conducted into the outcomes of Israeli policies in Gaza. This, according to Milstein, allows the same delusional mindset to persist, viewing each failure as a new opportunity to double down on flawed strategies. He points to emerging plans, such as the “two Gazas” project, which proposes dividing the Strip into a prosperous, internationally supervised zone and a devastated, Hamas-controlled area, as a desperate attempt to weaken the movement through “social engineering.” Milstein argues that this idea perfectly replicates the mistakes that preceded the October 7th attacks, without any self-criticism or accountability.
Milstein argues that these “new illusions” are more dangerous than their predecessors because they are not simply based on miscalculations or analytical errors, but on an absolute ideological belief rooted in the national-religious ideology embraced by the “Religious Zionism” movement. This ideology is founded on a Torah principle that views control over the land as a divine imperative, transcending political or international considerations. Leaders of this movement, most notably Smotrich, are unfazed by international isolation or warnings of sanctions. They adhere to biblical narratives, such as the extermination of the “Amalekites,” and see no problem with establishing a military administration in Gaza or controlling the West Bank. They openly express sentiments such as “Arabs only understand force” and “wherever there is a settlement, there is no terrorism.”
These individuals see themselves as carrying out a historic mission to exploit what they perceive as a “miraculous era” for Israel to fundamentally alter the geographical, demographic, and political landscape between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.
Milstein warns that this vision is gradually changing Israel’s identity and character, pushing towards a de facto integration with the West Bank, which will transform the country into a single entity inhabited by two warring peoples without geographical or political separation. He believes that this will inevitably lead to a “bloody Balkanized state,” where internal legitimacy erodes and international isolation deepens.
He concludes that this path is not simply a debate about tactics or strategy, but a struggle for the very identity of Israel: whether it wants to remain part of the modern world, engaging pragmatically with its surroundings, or transform into a closed-off “theocratic fortress,” led by a blind faith that refuses to learn from Jewish history, which has repeatedly demonstrated that such conditions are always a prelude to ruin and collapse.
Milstein concludes his article with a stark warning to the Israeli public: “The new vision is not a political plan, but a collective delusion that is leading us to lose our historical compass. Those who do not learn from the disasters of the past will reproduce them, perhaps at an even greater cost this time.”
