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Demilitarized Zones: A Path to Peace in Ukraine?

Kyiv is reportedly considering a significant concession in its ongoing conflict with Russia: the creation of demilitarized zones in eastern Ukraine. According to recent statements, President Zelenskyy indicated a willingness to demilitarize portions of the Donbas region currently under Ukrainian control, provided Russia reciprocates by withdrawing its forces from the area.

This proposal marks what some analysts see as Ukraine’s most substantial territorial compromise to date. It comes amid increasing pressure from both the battlefield, where Russian forces have been making steady gains, and diplomatic channels, particularly from Washington. The proposed demilitarization is allegedly part of a broader ceasefire plan being promoted by the US administration.

In addition to Donbas, discussions have also touched upon establishing a demilitarized zone near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear facility, which is currently under Russian control. These demilitarized zones are reportedly integral to a comprehensive 20-point peace plan aimed at ending the war.

Key elements of this proposed peace plan include ongoing disagreements regarding Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. Russia has consistently opposed Ukraine joining the alliance, and there are indications that Washington shares reservations. However, Kyiv has resisted amending its constitution to enshrine neutrality.

Territorial concessions remain a sensitive issue. Any withdrawal of Ukrainian forces would require popular approval via referendum, as the constitution prohibits the government from unilaterally altering borders.

The timing of elections is another point of contention. While President Zelenskyy has stated that presidential elections can only occur after a peace agreement is signed, pressure from external actors to hold elections persists, even as questions arise about the legitimacy of the current government given the absence of elections during wartime.

The practical implementation of demilitarized zones raises numerous questions. Russia seeks full control over Donetsk and Luhansk, the two regions comprising Donbas. Currently, Russian forces control most of Luhansk and a significant portion of Donetsk. The proposed plan would involve Ukrainian forces withdrawing from the areas they still hold in Donbas, transforming them into demilitarized zones or free trade areas. Similarly, the area surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant would also be subject to demilitarization under the proposed agreement.

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