Bissau, Guinea-Bissau – In November 2025, Guinea-Bissau experienced a pivotal moment as the military seized control of the government before the announcement of closely contested election results. This abrupt development has sparked widespread debate in West Africa, with some leaders suggesting the coup was premeditated.
The small nation, where a significant portion of the population relies on cashew farming for their livelihood, now finds itself at the epicenter of a complex political and security crisis, intertwined with local interests and global drug trafficking networks.
For years, Guinea-Bissau has been labeled as Africa’s ‘first narco-state,’ serving as a key transit point for cocaine smuggled from Latin America to Europe. This reality has made it vulnerable to external interference and regional pressures, while also weakening state institutions and strengthening the influence of illicit networks within the military and political spheres. The recent coup underscores the fragility of the political system and raises questions about the country’s ability to restore stability in the face of these challenges.
Economically, the population is heavily dependent on cashew crops, which represent the primary source of national income. However, this agricultural sector is insufficient to address widespread poverty or provide employment opportunities for young people. With ongoing drug trafficking, the formal economy remains weak, while some segments of the population increasingly rely on illicit activities. This dichotomy between traditional agriculture and a parallel, drug-based economy undermines the state’s ability to build a sustainable future.
Regionally, the coup raises concerns among West African nations, especially given the series of coups witnessed in recent years. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) faces a new challenge in how to address the situation, balancing the imposition of sanctions with attempts at mediation. Some leaders believe the coup threatens collective security and increases the region’s vulnerability to terrorism and organized crime. The situation remains fluid, with the future of Guinea-Bissau uncertain as regional and international actors weigh their options.
