Spain is the frontrunner to win the 2026 World Cup, according to a recent analysis. The study, which utilized advanced statistical models, considered factors such as recent team performance, qualifying results, player quality, and tactical data. The 2026 World Cup will be hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
The analysis gives Spain a 17% chance of lifting the trophy. Despite not reaching the top of international football since 2010, the emergence of young talents has significantly boosted their statistical ranking. France and England follow closely behind, with probabilities of 14.1% and 11.8%, respectively. These European nations appear to benefit from the stability of their current generations of players and strong performances in continental competitions.
Other top contenders include:
- France: 14.1% – The 2018 World Cup champions and 2022 runners-up remain strong contenders due to their squad depth.
- England: 11.8% – Fueled by an ambitious project.
- Argentina: 8.7% – The reigning champions see a slight decrease in their chances due to generational changes.
- Germany: 7.1% – Experiencing a resurgence after a period of decline.
Portugal (6.6%), Brazil (5.6%), and the Netherlands (5.2%) are also considered to be in contention, suggesting a potentially open tournament without a single dominant team.
Several other teams, including Norway, Colombia, Mexico, Japan, the United States, Morocco, and Croatia, have probabilities ranging from 0.9% to 2.3%. While these percentages are low for winning the title, they indicate the potential for these teams to advance to the later stages of the competition.
The analysis gives the following probabilities to some Arab national teams: Morocco: 1.1%, Senegal: 0.6%, Algeria: 0.3%, Egypt: 0.3%, Tunisia: 0.2%, Saudi Arabia: 0.1%, and Qatar: 0.1%.
Notably, the analysis assigns a 3.7% chance of winning the World Cup to a team emerging from the global play-off tournament. This could mean that the Italian national team may surprise everyone during the tournament after failing to qualify for the last two editions of the World Cup.
