HADRAMOUT, Yemen – A military expert predicts a swift collapse for forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Hadramout Governorate, eastern Yemen. This projection stems from a significant disparity in strength and resources compared to government forces backed by Saudi Arabia.
Ali al-Dahab, a military analyst, stated that Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government have exhausted all peaceful options, initiating mediation efforts with the STC following their incursion into Hadramout on December 4th. According to al-Dahab, these mediations failed to yield the desired results, leading to a more robust approach on the ground. This paves the way for a “decisive military resolution in favor of the Yemeni state and the coalition supporting legitimacy in the coming days.”
Reports from STC-affiliated media indicate alleged Saudi airstrikes targeting southern government forces. Conversely, the Homeland Shield Forces assert that the air force bombed STC gatherings in the Al-Khashaa area of Hadramout Governorate.
Al-Dahab suggests that the STC exploited a period of postponement to reinforce its presence and bring in additional troops, receiving limited external support. Saudi fighter jets reportedly targeted arms shipments arriving in Mukalla, further complicating the situation on the ground.
The military expert argues that the STC’s actual control remains limited despite the density of its forces. Their deployment across a vast area has weakened their effectiveness, particularly in desert regions lacking supply lines, logistical support, and air cover. According to al-Dahab, the eastern and western eastern regions of Hadramout, controlled by the STC, include key locations such as Ramah, Thamud, Al-Khashaa, Seiyun, and Al-Qatan.
He emphasized that the “receiving the camps” operation announced by the Homeland Shield Forces aims to restore control of these sites in an organized and peaceful manner, without targeting any specific gathering. The current focus of clashes is Al-Khashaa, the location of the 37th Armored Brigade headquarters and the First Military Region Command, which the STC recently occupied. The analyst concludes that the STC’s miscalculations are accelerating its potential defeat in the region.
