Middle East Disruptions Favor Algerian LNG Exporters
A significant disruption to Middle Eastern liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports has removed approximately 36 million tonnes from the global market, presenting a rare opening for African producers. This volume, nearly equivalent to Africa's total LNG exports in 2025, compels international buyers to search for alternative supplies outside the Gulf region. The estimate of the lost volume was disclosed by Shell at the Gastech energy conference in Bangkok, following reports that the ongoing conflict has hindered Qatar and the United Arab Emirates from moving most of their LNG exports through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
This supply shock has notably driven Asian spot LNG prices towards $30 per million British thermal units, a considerable increase from prior levels. The situation heightens the urgency for buyers in Asia and Europe to secure gas from producers whose shipping routes do not necessitate passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This geographical advantage places African exporters, including Algeria, in a stronger commercial position within the global energy market. Algeria, a significant producer, exported approximately 9.7 million tonnes of LNG in 2025 and benefits from established pipeline and LNG connections to Europe, bypassing the constrained Strait of Hormuz.
The immediate advantage for African producers with uncommitted cargoes is the potential for higher earnings. Should the disruption in the Middle East continue, it is anticipated that prices will remain elevated, further strengthening the bargaining position of available African suppliers. While many cargoes are already committed under long-term contracts and some established facilities face operational constraints, the current market dynamics offer a positive outlook for Algeria's energy sector by enhancing its commercial leverage and potential revenue streams from existing export capabilities.
