The Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) capture of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, on October 26th marks a significant turning point in the nearly three-year-long Sudanese conflict. This development potentially paves the way for a separate Sudanese authority, mirroring the situation with Haftar’s control in eastern and southern Libya.
The fall of El Fasher raises critical questions about the Sudanese army’s failure to maintain control and the potential demographic shifts within the region. Recent analysis suggests that the army’s focus on securing Khartoum, Port Sudan, and Al-Qadarif left Darfur vulnerable.
The government prioritized the capital, Khartoum, as a symbol of sovereignty; Port Sudan, controlling 90% of foreign trade; and Al-Qadarif, the country’s breadbasket. Consequently, the majority of military resources were allocated to these strategic areas, leaving limited forces to defend the Darfur region. New airbases were also established in Port Sudan.
The RSF capitalized on the army’s preoccupation with these key cities, concentrating its operations in the far west of the Darfur region, particularly in El Fasher. This city serves as a traditional stronghold for the RSF, given Hemeti’s roots in Darfur and his considerable tribal support base there. Furthermore, the RSF benefits from established supply lines and fallback positions in neighboring countries, including areas of southern Libya under the control of Khalifa Haftar.
Additionally, the RSF leverages revenue from the Jebel Amer gold mine in Darfur to finance its operations and secure external support, enabling them to increase their deployment of drones in the region. This has been instrumental in consolidating their control.
Human rights organizations have documented alleged ethnic cleansing crimes committed by the RSF in El Fasher, raising serious concerns about the humanitarian situation and the potential for further escalation of the conflict. The long-term implications of the RSF’s control over El Fasher remain uncertain, but the possibility of a de facto partition of Sudan is becoming increasingly real.
