The Role of American Influence
There is a growing consensus among experts that Israel will struggle to make significant military gains against Palestinian resistance, led by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), through aerial bombardments alone. In light of this, the Israeli government and its General Staff believe a ground operation will be necessary. Such an operation will aim not just to undermine Hamas but also to rebuild a measure of public confidence in the Israeli military.
The Timing and Nature of the Operation
However, the timing, scope, and nature of a ground operation depend on three principal parties: the U.S. administration, Israel’s Security Cabinet, and Israeli military generals. These stakeholders could delay the operation for several days or longer. Their decisions are informed by various considerations, ranging from the U.S.’ interest in resolving certain hostage situations involving foreign nationals to concerns about opening a second front with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Decisive American Factor
Significantly, the most crucial factor affecting the strategic landscape of this war, compared to smaller operations Israel has undertaken in the past, is American intervention. President Joe Biden visited Israel two weeks ago to affirm U.S. support and also dispatched an American aircraft carrier to the region. But Biden is keen to exert control over the situation and ensure American viewpoints are considered before Israel takes any decisive action.
Pentagon Involvement
According to a New York Times report last Tuesday, the Pentagon has sent Deputy Commander of Marine Corps, General James Glenn, who specializes in urban warfare, and other officers to Israel for detailed war planning with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The Biden administration is concerned that Israel may not have achievable military objectives in Gaza and believes that plans need to be carefully studied.
Lessons from Mosul and Raqqa
Israeli defense officials have revealed that detailed discussions are underway with their American counterparts based on lessons the U.S. learned from wars it fought against ISIS in the last decade. These include the American wars in Iraq and Syria, particularly the battles for control over the cities of Mosul in Iraq, where Glenn fought, and Raqqa in Syria.
Shared Objectives and Strategy
U.S. defense officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and American generals, are drawing upon their extensive experience as they review the situation. The Americans seek a thorough understanding of the operation’s objectives, the developments expected by their Israeli peers, and the mechanisms under consideration to end the war, not only in Gaza but also in the broader Palestinian theater and the region as a whole.
Given the intertwined interests and strategies of the United States and Israel, the ongoing conflict in Gaza has yet again demonstrated the extent of American involvement and influence in regional conflicts.
