Beirut – Lebanese President Joseph Aoun recently stated that the “specter of war has been pushed away from Lebanon,” expressing optimism that the situation is moving towards a positive trajectory. He even heralded what he described as the “birth of a new Lebanon” that ends wars and leads to peace.
However, this presidential optimism is met with skepticism. Political analyst Khalil Nasrallah suggests that the President’s statement is incomplete, noting that while the President mentioned the diminished threat of war, he did not specify how this was achieved.
Nasrallah believes this optimism might be based on a negotiation track or American assurances, but emphasizes that past experiences with Washington do not inspire confidence. He argues that any American guarantee is quickly proven flawed, citing the incident in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, when US envoy Amos Hochstein provided assurances that Beirut would not be targeted, yet the strike occurred in the southern suburbs, contradicting American guarantees.
Nasrallah further explains that Israeli behavior in Lebanon is characterized by continuous escalation, stemming from a security doctrine based on “striking the threat before it arises.” He points out that Israel is the party raising the stakes, while Lebanon is making concessions. He questions the notion of considering the current situation as outside the scope of a wider war and within a negotiation track, asking, “What is Lebanon negotiating if what the South is experiencing daily is not considered war?”
Meanwhile, journalist Amin Qamouriya argues that there is a clear race between escalation and settlement efforts, stressing that the United States remains the decisive factor in this matter.
Qamouriya suggests that Washington and Tel Aviv agree on the principle of disarming Hezbollah south of the Litani River, but the problem lies in what comes after. Will the US truly act as a restraining force, or will Lebanon find itself facing a new and devastating confrontation? The coming weeks will be critical in determining the answer.
