Tel Aviv – New data reveals a significant and unprecedented decline in Israel’s population growth rate, marking a potential turning point for the nation’s demographic future. The report highlights a concerning trend of negative net migration coupled with decreasing fertility rates, a combination not seen since the establishment of the state in 1948.
The report, titled “State of the Nation 2025,” indicates that the population growth rate has plummeted to just 0.9% in 2025. This figure represents a historic low and paints a “worrying demographic picture,” according to analysts.
A key factor contributing to this decline is negative net migration. Israel experienced a net loss of approximately 37,000 residents as the number of emigrants exceeded those immigrating or returning. This marks the second consecutive year of such a loss, fueled by both a rise in what is termed “reverse migration” of former immigrants and an increase in Israelis leaving the country.
Simultaneously, fertility rates are also on the decline. While the annual number of births has remained relatively stable over the past decade, projections indicate a significant drop in fertility rates across different segments of Israeli society. Secular and traditional Jewish women are expected to have an average of 1.7 children each by the end of the next decade, while religious women are projected to have around 2.3 children. Even among the ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) community, fertility rates are expected to decrease to approximately 4.3 children per woman. Similar trends are observed within the Arab community, potentially leading to an overall decrease in the total number of births in the coming years.
According to Alex Weinreb, head of demography at the Taub Center, “Israel stands on the threshold of a new era, after the peak of natural increase is in the past.” He emphasized that “immigration policies will become a crucial element in promoting demographic growth in the future” in light of the profound population shifts observed in the report.
