Yemen’s political landscape has undergone a dramatic shift following the reported departure of Aidarus al-Zubaidi, head of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), from the country. This development coincides with the increasing control exerted by government forces and the Arab Coalition across southern governorates.
The STC, which recently declared the south’s secession with alleged support from the UAE, appears to be faltering both politically and militarily. This decline seemingly accelerated after al-Zubaidi’s sudden disappearance. Forces loyal to the internationally recognized government and the Arab Coalition, led by Saudi Arabia, have reportedly consolidated their control over the entire southern region.
Al-Zubaidi’s whereabouts remain unknown. He was reportedly scheduled to travel to Saudi Arabia for political negotiations but has since vanished. Sources suggest that his fate is no longer a primary concern for either the remaining STC leadership, the government, or even the Arab Coalition.
The immediate priority, according to analysts, is for government and coalition forces to establish security and prevent further instability in the south. Discussions regarding an inclusive intra-southern dialogue are also underway.
Notably, Mohammed al-Ghaithi, the STC’s foreign affairs representative, arrived in Riyadh today to participate in the southern dialogue. Several other senior STC members have also reportedly reached Riyadh for joint negotiations, suggesting that al-Zubaidi may have been the driving force behind recent events, allegedly in collaboration with the United Arab Emirates.
With formal accusations of treason levied against him, Al-Zubaidi’s future in Yemen seems increasingly uncertain. Analysts predict the dismantling of STC-affiliated forces and their potential integration into the government’s armed forces. The government is expected to initiate a process of reconciliation and reconstruction in the south, aiming to restore stability and address the grievances of the southern population. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the long-term implications of these developments for Yemen’s future.
