France has recorded more deaths than births in 2025, marking the first time this has occurred since the end of World War II. This development challenges France’s traditionally strong demographic advantage compared to other European Union nations.
Official figures released this week reveal that France registered 651,000 deaths last year, while births declined to 645,000. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) attributes a significant drop in births to the period following the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
Historically, France has maintained a healthier demographic profile than much of Europe. However, an aging population coupled with declining birth rates indicate that France is not immune to the demographic crisis impacting public finances across the continent. The fertility rate has fallen to 1.56 children per woman, the lowest level since World War II and significantly below the 1.8 rate assumed in pension funding projections.
While France held the second-highest fertility rate in the EU at 1.65 in 2023 (behind Bulgaria’s 1.81), experts are raising concerns. The national audit office cautioned last month that this demographic shift will drive public spending higher in the coming years as the tax base erodes. Economist Philippe Crevel of the Cercle de l’Epargne research center warns that labor market tensions and workforce challenges are likely to intensify rapidly as the large generations born in the 1960s retire.
Despite the mortality rate exceeding the birth rate, France’s overall population grew slightly to 69.1 million last year. INSEE estimates that net migration contributed approximately 176,000 people to the population increase.
