Gaza stands at a critical juncture as efforts to advance the US-led plan for ending the conflict face significant hurdles. Multiple sources indicate that the initiative, spearheaded by former US President Donald Trump, is faltering, raising the specter of a divided Gaza Strip.
The proposed division could see one area under Israeli control and another administered by Hamas. Several European officials familiar with the implementation attempts have confirmed the plan’s stalled status. Reconstruction efforts, they suggest, might be confined to Israeli-controlled zones, potentially leading to a prolonged separation.
According to these officials, further progress hinges on a substantial shift in the positions of either Hamas or Israel. Alternatively, significant US pressure could persuade Israel to grant the Palestinian Authority a role and a pathway towards establishing a Palestinian state. Absent such developments, the plan may not progress beyond the initial ceasefire phase.
The absence of a concerted US effort to break the deadlock raises the possibility of the so-called ‘Yellow Line’ becoming a de facto border indefinitely dividing Gaza. Discussions have included the potential for Hamas to surrender its weapons under international supervision, rather than to Israel or any other foreign force.
The initial phase of the plan, implemented last October, reportedly involved the Israeli military controlling a significant portion of the Gaza Strip, including agricultural land, Rafah in the south, and parts of Gaza City. The subsequent phase envisioned a greater Israeli withdrawal to the ‘Yellow Line,’ the establishment of a transitional governing authority, the deployment of a multinational security force, the disarmament of Hamas, and the commencement of reconstruction.
However, the plan faces considerable challenges. Hamas’s refusal to disarm and Israel’s reluctance to grant the Palestinian Authority any role pose significant obstacles. The details surrounding the multinational force remain unclear, further complicating the plan’s future implementation. The road ahead for Gaza remains uncertain, with the prospect of division looming large. The situation demands immediate attention and renewed diplomatic efforts to prevent further fragmentation of the region. The future of Gaza hangs in the balance.
