France is grappling with a severe demographic crisis, prompting concerns about the nation’s long-term vitality. Recent studies reveal a concerning decline in birth rates and a near standstill in natural population growth, raising questions about the country’s future.
The natural balance between births and deaths in France reached a critical point in 2024, marking the lowest level in eight decades. The margin between the two was a mere 0.2 additional births per thousand inhabitants. This minimal figure highlights a significant weakening in the country’s population dynamics, placing France precariously close to what some experts are calling ‘demographic death’.
While France’s population stood at 68.6 million at the beginning of January 2025, the annual increase was only 169,000 people. This marginal growth is primarily attributed to external migration rather than natural population increase through births.
The number of births continues its downward trajectory for the fourteenth consecutive year. Birth rates have fallen from 833,000 in 2010 to just 661,000 in 2024, representing a nearly 21% decrease over 14 years. The fertility rate, a crucial indicator of a population’s ability to replace itself, has plummeted to 1.62 children per woman. This falls far short of the natural population replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman. This suggests that France is no longer capable of naturally replenishing its population without relying on immigration.
External migration has become the primary, and almost sole, factor sustaining population growth in France. Net migration reached approximately 152,000 people in 2024, accounting for the vast majority of the overall population increase. During the same year, French authorities issued 343,000 first residence permits, primarily to foreign students and for family reunification purposes, although the latter has seen a noticeable decline over the past decade. Permits granted for humanitarian reasons (refugees and asylum seekers) have also returned to levels seen previously.
