Following Israel’s groundbreaking recognition of Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state, speculation is mounting regarding which other nations might follow suit. Just ten days after the announcement, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar met with the president of the self-declared republic, fueling further discussion about the region’s future.
Potential Candidates for Recognition
According to a Reuters report, citing a Somaliland official and a regional diplomat, several countries are considering recognizing Somaliland. While concrete confirmations remain absent, various geopolitical factors suggest potential candidates.
United States Interests
U.S. Senator Ted Cruz recently stated on social media that recognizing Somaliland aligns with American security interests. He described the region as an ally sharing American values in a vital area for global trade and counter-terrorism efforts.
Ethiopia’s Landlocked Ambitions
Ethiopia’s interest in Somaliland is well-documented. In 2024, the two parties signed a memorandum of understanding granting Ethiopia access to a coastal area around the port of Berbera in exchange for Addis Ababa’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence. This agreement has strained relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, pushing Mogadishu closer to Egypt and Eritrea, both long-standing rivals of Ethiopia. Despite agreeing to work with Somalia to resolve the dispute in late 2024, rumors persist that Ethiopia is preparing to recognize Somaliland.
India’s Counter to China
While India has denied reports of imminent recognition, some analysts argue that acknowledging Somaliland’s independence would serve as a strategic move to counter China’s growing economic influence in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Djibouti, Kenya, and Tanzania.
UAE’s Regional Footprint
The United Arab Emirates, which normalized relations with Israel in 2020 under the Abraham Accords, has significantly expanded its influence in the region. Through DP World, Dubai’s state-owned ports operator, the UAE manages the port of Berbera, as well as the Berbera airport and a free trade zone situated between the two.
Somaliland’s strategic location continues to be a key factor in its pursuit of international recognition.
