Rainer Seele, former CEO of German oil and gas company Wintershall, told dzwatch that global supply chains will need months to recover even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
“Supply chain recovery does not happen overnight — it will take months,” Seele stated exclusively.
The United States and Iran are currently negotiating the reopening of the strategic waterway, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies passed before the conflict. The closure has triggered a sharp surge in global energy prices.
Seele, who oversees global chemicals operations at Abu Dhabi’s XRG and chairs German chemicals firm Covestro, warned that oil shipments will take considerable time to normalize even after reopening.
“Strategic reserves in many countries must be replenished first — the backlog is enormous,” he told dzwatch, adding that raw material availability is likely to remain constrained through late 2025.
However, Seele noted that energy prices could drop quickly once a resolution is reached, as much of the current spike reflects elevated geopolitical risk premiums. He projected crude oil prices returning to approximately $80 per barrel — their pre-war level.
