Bamako Faces Unprecedented Security Crisis as State Authority Weakens
Mali is facing a critical juncture, with security deteriorating rapidly and threatening the collapse of state institutions. Experts are warning of a potential state failure following the military junta’s abandonment of the Algiers Agreement. The rising influence of armed groups, coupled with a crippling siege on the capital Bamako, has triggered a severe fuel crisis, paralyzed trade and transportation, and caused prices to skyrocket by over 200%.
Observers believe that the military coup led by Assimi Goïta marked a dangerous turning point, effectively dismantling the 2015 Algiers Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation. This agreement was considered a cornerstone for building lasting peace and integrating northern communities, particularly the Tuareg, into the state’s political and military structures.
Armed Groups Tighten Grip on Bamako, Control Key Resources
Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, has imposed an economic blockade on Bamako for weeks, targeting supply convoys from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. This has resulted in shortages and paralysis of public transport. The group claimed responsibility for kidnapping three Egyptians, demanding a $5 million ransom, highlighting the state’s declining security authority and the growing power of jihadist organizations.
Reports indicate that JNIM now controls an estimated 80% of gold production in the Kayes region, using the revenue to fund military and logistical operations, further weakening the junta’s ability to control its natural resources.
International Warnings, Fears of State Collapse Intensify
Amidst the deteriorating security situation, Western nations have issued repeated warnings, urging their citizens to evacuate Mali. France, the United States, Germany, Italy, and Australia have advised their citizens to leave immediately, citing worsening security conditions even within Bamako.
The situation underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive strategy to address the root causes of instability in Mali and prevent a complete state collapse. Experts are calling for renewed efforts to revive the peace process, strengthen governance, and counter the growing influence of armed groups.
