The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are facing a critical juncture in South Kordofan, requiring a strategic reassessment to counter the advancements of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). According to military expert Colonel Hatem al-Fallahi, the conflict is intensifying across key areas including Burnu, Kadugli, and al-Dilling.
Recent reports indicate heightened military activity. The SAF announced airstrikes targeting RSF positions and their allies, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), near al-Faraqil and al-Hajiz, close to al-Dilling. Simultaneously, in North Kordofan, the army claimed to have downed two RSF drones over al-Ubayyid, the state capital.
Conversely, the RSF asserted control over the Burnu area, east of Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan. Al-Fallahi, in his analysis, highlighted the RSF’s ability to expand its front line to over 200 kilometers, facilitated by the introduction of advanced weaponry, notably sophisticated drones. This development presents significant logistical and military challenges for the SAF.
The RSF’s recent capture of Burnu aims to tighten the siege on Kadugli and al-Dilling, cities that have been under pressure since 2023. The considerable distances between these urban centers provide the RSF with enhanced maneuverability. The distance between Kadugli and al-Dilling is approximately 113 kilometers, while al-Dilling is 137 kilometers from al-Ubayyid. This situation raises concerns about the potential fall of South Kordofan and its de facto integration with West Kordofan, placing al-Ubayyid in immediate danger, according to al-Fallahi.
Shifting Power Dynamics
Al-Fallahi also revealed that the RSF has deployed CH-95 drones. These drones possess the capability to operate effectively in areas lacking traditional radar infrastructure, acting as mobile transmission devices and antennas to maintain communication between control centers and remote targets. The RSF’s acquisition of over 16 of these drones has directly impacted strategic targets, altering the balance of power on the ground.
