DZWatch Exclusive: A prominent Spanish security and geopolitics analyst has warned that Morocco may set its sights on the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla after its gains in the Western Sahara dispute. Fernando Cocho, in an interview, argued that the relationship between Spain and Morocco suffers from a lack of coherent and transparent state policy.
Cocho described the bilateral relationship as being “more of a relationship between individuals,” highlighting what he perceives as a lack of strategic vision and an over-reliance on personal connections in decision-making processes that affect Spain’s sovereignty and national security. He believes this approach leaves Spain vulnerable to its Moroccan neighbor.
According to Cocho, Morocco has successfully strengthened its political, economic, and diplomatic position, while Spain appears trapped in a reactive mode, unable to effectively define its boundaries or defend its national interests. “Morocco is in control,” he stated, echoing a growing sentiment that the Spanish government is either unwilling or unable to confront sustained pressure from Rabat.
The analyst issued a stark warning about the future of Ceuta and Melilla, stating, “Ceuta and Melilla will be Morocco’s next target after the Western Sahara due to Spain’s inaction.” He explained that concessions regarding the Western Sahara do not resolve conflicts but rather open the door to new challenges, encouraging Morocco to consider expansion towards the Spanish territories in North Africa.
Cocho accused Morocco of employing what he termed “hybrid warfare,” utilizing migratory, diplomatic, economic, and narrative pressure to exploit the lack of a firm and unified response from the Spanish state. He argued that this strategy is not a theoretical threat but a real practice that leaves Spain structurally weak in the face of a partner with long-term strategic goals.
Cocho concluded by calling on Spain to adopt a cohesive and clear state policy capable of protecting its sovereignty and national interests, and curbing Morocco’s expansionist ambitions before Ceuta and Melilla become achievable targets. He emphasized that any absence of a clear policy or continued political vacuum will only embolden Morocco’s territorial aspirations. DZWatch will continue to monitor this developing situation.
