A major arms deal between Ukraine and France could significantly alter the balance of power in the ongoing conflict with Russia, according to military and strategic expert Colonel Hatem Karim Al-Fallahi.
The agreement, reportedly signed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron, involves the acquisition of approximately 100 Rafale fighter jets. Al-Fallahi suggests this represents a qualitative shift that could reshape the aerial dynamics between Moscow and Kyiv.
According to Al-Fallahi, the Rafale aircraft are multi-role combat jets with air-to-air, air-to-ground, and naval strike capabilities. Boasting a speed exceeding Mach 1.8 and a payload capacity of up to 15 tons, the Rafale is considered an advanced offensive platform capable of striking deep within Russian-held territories.
The deal is reportedly part of a broader 10-year agreement that includes next-generation air defense systems like the SAMP/T, along with other French military equipment. Kyiv has hailed the agreement as “historic,” aimed at bolstering its air and defense capabilities.
Al-Fallahi believes the introduction of these fighter jets will challenge Russian air superiority over Ukraine. He noted that long-range missiles, such as the Storm Shadow, which the Rafale can carry, could enable strikes against sensitive targets deep inside Russia – a capability Ukraine previously lacked.
France has previously confirmed its intention to supply Kyiv with advanced air defense systems, which is part of a growing trend of European support. Other Western nations have pledged to provide Ukraine with F-16 and Mirage 2000 fighter jets, in addition to previous contracts for Swedish Gripen aircraft.
The SAMP/T system, according to Al-Fallahi, is capable of intercepting fighter jets, drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles with a range of up to 600 kilometers. He believes its deployment in Ukraine would create a complex defensive network, potentially restricting Russian air operations and reducing their combat effectiveness over frontline cities.
The provision of these systems to Kyiv could provoke Moscow, particularly since the weapons are of French origin and not subject to US or NATO approval restrictions. This could open the door for the transfer of advanced offensive capabilities to the Ukrainian military while the war continues.
The potential impact of this deal on the future trajectory of the conflict remains to be seen.
