Analysts suggest that Israel might act on its threats to escalate tensions with Lebanon, citing ongoing violations of the ceasefire agreement and accusations that the Lebanese government is failing to disarm Hezbollah.
These comments follow reports that Lebanon has received Arab and international warnings of a potential large-scale Israeli military operation. These warnings suggest that ongoing negotiations will not deter Israeli aggression.
Journalist Nicola Nasif notes that while Israeli threats are not new, the potential scale of a future conflict is concerning. Warnings indicate a possible repeat of the 2006 conflict, with Israel targeting Lebanese infrastructure to pressure the government into disarming Hezbollah.
Despite allegedly disregarding the ceasefire with Hezbollah since November 27, 2024, and UN Security Council Resolution 1701, Israel seeks to continue negotiations with Lebanon under duress. Nasif believes that disarming Hezbollah has become a joint American-Israeli objective.
Nasif also mentions the appointment of former Ambassador to Washington, Simon Karam, to the “Mechanism” committee, seeing it as a response to American and Israeli demands to elevate Lebanese-Israeli negotiations to a political level. However, he clarifies that “Lebanon seeks a settlement with Israel, not a peace treaty.”
Researcher Adel Shadid posits that the United States has an interest in escalating the situation in Lebanon. He argues that Israel’s actions are condoned by the US, with the shared goal of weakening Hezbollah to remove it as an obstacle to their regional objectives. Shadid suggests that Israel prefers a weak government in Lebanon.
DZWatch will continue to monitor this developing situation and provide updates as they become available.
