Concerns are escalating in global oil markets regarding the potential disruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on energy supplies and crude prices, following the launch of a large-scale aerial attack on Iran by the United States and Israel.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for global energy, as a quarter of seaborne oil supplies pass through it, making any threat to shipping traffic a direct factor in price fluctuations.
If navigation through the strait becomes dangerous for oil and gas tankers due to military escalation, these tankers would require protection from Western warships, particularly American ones, to secure their passage. While this scenario might slow maritime shipping, it would not significantly affect global energy supplies.
The most dangerous scenario involves a complete closure of the strait for several days, which is considered the worst-case possibility for energy markets. Moyo Xu, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, a company specializing in the energy market, predicted last June that an Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz for just one day could lead to global oil prices rising to between $120 and $150 per barrel.
The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil pricing, stood at $72.48 per barrel at the end of trading last Friday, meaning that any actual closure of the strait could push prices to levels far exceeding their current rates.
