Institute for Security Studies Projects $724 Billion Algerian Economy by 2043
The African Futures and Innovation (AFI) program, a component of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), forecasts a substantial expansion for the Algerian economy over the next two decades. According to its prospective study on Algeria, a combined scenario indicates that the nation's total economic value added could achieve $724.9 billion by 2043. This figure represents a significant increase of $271.3 billion, or 59.8%, above the $453.5 billion projected for Algeria's current economic trajectory.
This optimistic projection is underpinned by the simultaneous acceleration of growth across multiple vital sectors, including agriculture, industry, education, infrastructure, governance, financial flows, and African trade integration. African integration is highlighted as the most impactful driver, potentially contributing an additional $71.3 billion to Algeria's GDP by 2043, translating to a 15.7% gain over the current path. Furthermore, the manufacturing sector is anticipated to see its value added grow by $18.3 billion, reaching an estimated $132.8 billion, while agricultural advancements could lead to an additional 11 million tons of production, potentially reducing import costs by approximately $6.6 billion.
The ISS report also emphasizes Algeria's human capital development and demographic shifts as crucial elements supporting future economic growth. The population is projected to increase from 44.2 million in 2021 to 58.6 million in 2043, with the 15-64 age group constituting 66.1% of the population, up from 63% in 2021. This demographic opportunity, combined with educational progress reflected in an 82% literacy rate in 2019 and a projected 10.4 average years of education for 15-24 year olds by 2043, positions Algeria for sustained development. Noteworthy strides in health, indicated by a reduction in infant mortality from approximately 106 per 1,000 live births in 1970 to nearly 22 in 2020, further reinforce this productive transformation.
To support this projected growth, the study anticipates a rise in foreign direct investment inflows, increasing from 1.7% of GDP on the current trajectory to 3.3% by 2043. This economic future is also closely linked to the broader development of Africa. The AFI program forecasts a substantial increase in the continental GDP, potentially surpassing $17 trillion by 2050 in a sustainable world scenario, up from $3.4 trillion in 2025. Algeria is thus strategically positioned to leverage its robust energy, agricultural, industrial, human, and geographical assets through enhanced engagement and openness within the African continent.
