A new scientific study reveals that the world may have crossed a “tipping point” towards making solar energy the primary power source by 2050. Conducted by a team from the University of Exeter and University College London (UCL), Solar Energy Dominance by 2050 .
the research also points to significant “barriers” that could hinder achieving this outcome. These barriers include the need for stable energy networks, adequate financing for solar energy in developing countries, supply capabilities, and resistance from those whose jobs rely on traditional energy industries.
Cost Reductions Paving the Way to a “Tipping Point”
Over the past decade, the cost of electricity generated from solar power plants has seen a notable decrease, falling by 89% from 2010 to 2022, according to a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency. The battery industry, essential for balancing solar power supply throughout day and night, has undergone a similar price revolution during the same period.
As technological advancements continue and costs decrease, researchers discuss a “tipping point” where renewable sources become cheaper than traditional energy sources. However, experts have not agreed on when this might occur or how it will unfold.
Lowest-Cost Technology for Electricity Generation Emerging
Solar energy is projected to be the world’s least expensive power source between 2020 and 2030, as per a study published in “Nature.” Due to uncertainties about this tipping point, most global energy system models have assumed the continued dominance of fossil fuels in the future, underestimating the real-world growth rate of solar energy. A 2022 report by the International Energy Agency predicted that solar energy would constitute only 25% of electricity production by 2050.
Rapid Transition to Solar Energy Due to Cost Reductions
The recent study in “Nature Communications” by researchers from the University of Exeter and UCL revisits the question: Have we already crossed the tipping point where solar energy is set to become the dominant electricity source? Their findings, integrating the latest technological and economic data from 70 regions worldwide into a macroeconomic model, suggest that the solar energy revolution has indeed begun, with this renewable energy source poised to form over half of the world’s electricity sources by mid-century. Experts believe this massive shift is possible even without stricter climate policies.
The time required to construct solar plants has decreased to a maximum of one year, compared to three years for wind power plants, allowing investors to benefit from their cost-effectiveness sooner. This trend is expected to continue, with solar energy production costs dropping by 60% from 2020 to 2050.
If these predictions hold, solar energy, along with its storage systems, is expected to become the cheapest option for electricity generation in nearly all regions by 2030. By then, it is projected to be 50% cheaper than building new coal-powered plants in the EU, the US, India, China, Japan, and Brazil.
Barriers to the Energy Transition
Despite these optimistic forecasts, transitioning to solar energy reliance is not without obstacles. Researchers identified four main barriers that could impede progress:
- Electricity grids need to adapt to the fluctuating nature of solar power generation. This adaptation requires diversified renewable energy sources, interconnected regional grids, large-scale electricity storage, efficient energy demand management, and incentives for renewable energy use.
- Addressing the global disparity in financing for renewable energy projects. Currently, most investments are directed towards high-income countries, while low-income countries, especially in Africa, face a severe lack of funding for solar energy projects.
- The requirement for materials necessary to develop the solar energy industry. A solar-dominated future is likely to be intensive in mineral use, increasing the demand for “vital minerals” like lithium and copper needed for electricity production and battery manufacturing. Renewable technologies are expected to account for 40% of total copper and rare earth element demand, 60-70% of nickel and cobalt, and about 90% of lithium by 2040.
- Consideration of the reaction from industries reliant on traditional energy sources, which could slow down this crucial transition. This rapid shift in energy sources could affect the livelihoods of up to 13 million people worldwide working in the fossil fuel sector and related industries.
Source: Al Jazeera + Agencies
Solar Energy Dominance by 2050
